@InProceedings{JustidaSilvaCoDeMeSaSi:2006:OpRaPr,
               author = "Justi da Silva, Maria Gertrudes Alvarez and Coelho, David Garrana 
                         and Dereczynski, Claudine Pereira and Menezes, Wallace Figueiredo 
                         and Santos, Isimar de Azevedo and Silva, Alfredo Silveira da",
          affiliation = "Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Departamento de 
                         Meteorologia and Ilha da Cidade Universitaria. 21949-900 Rio de 
                         Janeiro, RJ, Brazil",
                title = "Operational rainfall prediction over Brazilian Cerrado Region 
                         using MM5 mesoscale model",
            booktitle = "Proceedings...",
                 year = "2006",
               editor = "Vera, Carolina and Nobre, Carlos",
                pages = "1809--1810",
         organization = "International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and 
                         Oceanography, 8. (ICSHMO).",
            publisher = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
              address = "45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA",
             keywords = "weather predicton, mesoscale numerical model, hydrological 
                         basin.",
             abstract = "It is a common practice the use of mesoscale models to predict 
                         regional weather, although this methodology has not yet 
                         sufficiently tested on continental tropical regions. In Brazil the 
                         major source of electric energy comes from hydrological plants, so 
                         its important to forecast with accuracy the rainfall in the basin 
                         under consideration. In the present test, the MM5 model was used 
                         operationally for 5 days prediction during January 2005 over the 
                         River Manso Basin (Mato Grosso State in Cerrado region of Brazil) 
                         using a detailed grid of 3 km spacing. The verification of the 
                         model prediction performance was made trough a regional set of 
                         observational stations. Dividing the month in periods of 4 or 5 
                         days, the rainfall forecast showed good agreement with accumulated 
                         regional observed precipitation, important to dimension the 
                         hydrological basin outflow. In a point to point verification, all 
                         RMSE tests show that the temperature, wind components and rainfall 
                         forecasts error are small enough to justify the proposed 
                         methodology. Even for 120 hours forecasts, the model presented 
                         good skill. The relative humidity, been a composed parameter, show 
                         not so good forecast performance.",
  conference-location = "Foz do Igua{\c{c}}u",
      conference-year = "24-28 Apr. 2006",
             language = "en",
         organisation = "American Meteorological Society (AMS)",
                  ibi = "cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.21.28",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.21.28",
           targetfile = "1809-1810.pdf",
                 type = "Weather analysis and forecasting",
        urlaccessdate = "15 maio 2024"
}